2023 Vermont Market Report

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Looking back at 2023, it is evident that the year was characterized by dwindling inventory and escalating mortgage interest rates, leading to decreased affordability amid a continuing uptrend in median sale prices both regionally and nationally. Notably, the inventory of available homes in 2023 was half compared to 2019 levels, with cash transactions accounting for 30% of total transactions, up from 20% pre-pandemic. Economists, contemplating the outlook for 2024, foresee a probable adjustment in interest rates by year’s end. The question is: Will these adjustments suffice in prompting more activity among sellers and buyers, motivating them to transition from inertia to action in pursuit of significant lifestyle changes or long-postponed decisions? Residential real estate sales are largely influenced by life events such as marriages, divorces, births, deaths, or relocations.

Single-Family January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$459,776 +6.9% $530,366 +5.8%1,802 -15.3%2116 -10.8%29 +16.0%
Condos January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$359,900 +5.9% $404,973 +5.2%557 -21.2%647 -7.7%22 +4.8%
Multi-Family January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$572,934 + 12.2% $484,852 -1.1%118 -35.5%184 -10.2%49 -9.3%
Land January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$139,000 +0.4% $210,078 -0.2%185 -20.9%301 -6.8%118 -23.4%

Nationally, existing home sales dropped by 18%, hitting the lowest point since 1995. On the other hand, new home sales saw a slight increase of 4.5% across the country. In Vermont, the demand for new homes far exceeds the supply, with estimates suggesting a need for approximately 6000 new homes annually, compared to the current production which falls significantly short of this figure. Challenges such as higher interest rates, labor shortages, and the complexities of the permit process hinder builders’ efforts. Notably, the top priorities for this year’s legislature revolve around safety, security, and housing. Vermont’s slow labor market growth is largely attributed to the housing shortage and affordability issues, as potential workers face difficulties relocating due to inadequate housing options.

In northwest Vermont, including counties like Chittenden, Addison, Franklin, and Grand Isle, the median sale price of single-family homes rose by nearly 7%, while the number of units sold dropped by 15%. The imbalance between supply and demand was further exacerbated by an 11% decrease in homes entering the market, pushing the median sale price to $459,776 in the area with significant variations at the city, town, and county levels. Over the past four years, median home prices have seen a 40% increase, and moderate increases are expected to continue over the next three to five years. This underscores the importance for prospective buyers to act rather than wait for price corrections or mortgage rate declines. Given the significant appreciation in home values, homeowners are advised to consider capital gains implications when deciding whether to stay put or capitalize on their equity. However, the current capital gains exemption, unchanged for 25 years, is increasingly viewed as outdated, prompting calls for adjustments to reflect inflationary trends.

Forecasts from Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors, suggest a potential 14% increase in home sales this year, accompanied by modest price appreciation estimates ranging between 2.5% to 5%. Despite some buyers anticipating price declines, local market conditions driven by supply-demand imbalances do not support such expectations. Various economists and institutions, including the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae, predict mortgage rates hovering around 6% to 6.5%, a level deemed acceptable by both buyers and sellers, capable of stimulating market activity. Additionally, external factors such as the presidential election year, Federal Reserve rate adjustments, and global geopolitical developments could exert further influence on the real estate landscape in 2024.

A downward trajectory in the marketplace could incentivize homeowners with exceptionally low rates to consider selling, thereby alleviating the inventory crunch experienced in 2023. Dubbed the “lockdown effect,” many sellers have hesitated to trade their current interest rates for higher terms, but as rates gradually recede and life circumstances evolve, this grip will loosen and market activity is expected to rebound. We will continue to monitor mortgage rates throughout 2024.

In summary, amidst the complex interplay of economic indicators and socio-political factors, consumer sentiment is on the upswing, with prospective buyers encouraged to seize opportunities that align with their present and foreseeable needs while remaining within their financial means.

Long term, the solution must include more and larger development to meet demand. Reputable and well-established builders are working hard to roll out new projects and additional phases of established communities. Extensive permitting and labor shortages are impacting cost, ultimately absorbed by purchasers. More action by state and local officials is needed to satisfy demand, address affordability, and positively impact our aging housing stock.

To best navigate this market successfully, it is crucial for both buyers and sellers to be well-informed about the current conditions and trends and adapt their strategies accordingly. Our well-skilled and experienced Agents can provide you with the guidance you need to make your next move.

Chittenden County Towns Monthly & Quarterly Updates

TownsMonthly Report LinkSearch Homes for Sale by Town
BurlingtonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
BoltonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
CharlotteMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
ColchesterMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
EssexMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
HinesburgMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
HuntingtonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
JerichoMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
MiltonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
RichmondMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
ShelburneMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
South BurlingtonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
St. GeorgeMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
UnderhillMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
WestfordMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
WillistonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
WinooskiMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale

Lamoille County Towns Monthly & Quarterly Updates

Lamoille CountyMonthlyHome Search
CambridgeMonthly ReportSearch Cambridge Homes for Sale
ElmoreMonthly ReportSearch Elmore Homes for Sale
Hyde ParkMonthly ReportSearch Hyde Park Homes for Sale
JohnsonMonthly ReportSearch Johnson Homes for Sale
MorristownMonthly ReportSearch Morristown Homes for Sale
StoweMonthly ReportSearch Stowe Homes for Sale
WolcottMonthly ReportSearch WolcottHomes for Sale

Washington County Towns Monthly & Quarterly Updates

Washington CountyMonthlyHome Search
Barre CityMonthly ReportSearch Barre City Homes for Sale
Barre TownMonthly ReportSearch Barre Town Homes for Sale
BerlinMonthly ReportSearch Berlin Homes for Sale
CabotMonthly ReportSearch Cabot Homes for Sale
CalaisMonthly ReportSearch Calais Homes for Sale
DuxburyMonthly ReportSearch Duxbury Homes for Sale
East MontpelierMonthly ReportSearch East Montpelier Homes for Sale
FaystonMonthly ReportSearch Fayston Homes for Sale
MarshfieldMonthly ReportSearch Marshfield Homes for Sale
MiddlesexMonthly ReportSearch Middlesex Homes for Sale
MontpelierMonthly ReportSearch Middlesex Homes for Sale
MoretownMonthly ReportSearch Moretown Homes for Sale
NorthfieldMonthly ReportSearch Northfield Homes for Sale
PlainfieldMonthly ReportSearch Plainfield Homes for Sale
WaitsfieldMonthly ReportSearch Waitsfield Homes for Sale
WarrenMonthly ReportSearch Warren Homes for Sale
WaterburyMonthly ReportSearch Waterbury Homes for Sale

Addison County Towns Monthly & Quarterly Updates

TownsMonthly Report LinkQuarterly Report LinkSearch Homes for Sale by Town
AddisonMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
BridportMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
BristolMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
CornwallMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
FerrisburghMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
LeicesterMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
LincolnMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
MiddleburyMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
MonktonMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
OrwellMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
ShorehamMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
StarksboroMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
VergennesMonthly ReportQuarterly ReportSearch Homes for Sale

Franklin County Towns Monthly & Quarterly Updates

TownsMonthly Report LinkSearch Homes for Sale by Town
BakersfieldMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
EnorburgMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
FairfaxMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
FairfieldMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
FletcherMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
FranklinMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
GeorgiaMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
HighgateMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
MontgomeryMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
RichfordMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
SheldonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
St Albans CityMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
St Albans TownMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale
SwantonMonthly ReportSearch Homes for Sale

Vermont Mortgage Update

Ranjit “Buddy” Singh, NMLS 92046
[email protected]

Julie Thorpe NMLS# 92216
[email protected] 

There was positive news for mortgage rates which ended 2023 at the low 6% range as the market cheered lower inflation. Rates have moved slightly higher since then, as there are questions with the size, timing, and quantity of Fed rate cuts in the coming year. Freddie Mac expects rates to remain in 6-7% range for 2024, higher than other industry and market participants are estimating. Historically, there have been momentary dips in mortgage rates based on reactions to economic data so it is important to have a very responsive and attentive mortgage representative who has access to live markets this year.

We saw notable changes in the lending environment in 2023. As a recap, FHA ended life of loan mortgage insurance for buyers with 10% down. Fannie Mae added a 5% down payment option for qualified borrowers on 2-4 unit primary residence. This indicates Fannie Mae’s understanding that many homebuyers are priced out of this market, and the income from a multi-unit property provides a path to homeownership. We also saw changes in loan level price adjustments for first time home buyers to offset the rise in rates.

We saw other trends in 2023 that have helped homebuyers access the American dream. There was an increase in borrowers using cosigners, having larger down payments and receiving gifts from family members to make homes more affordable. Multiple homebuyers combining resources to qualify for a multi-unit instead of renting has also become more popular. This strategy increases buying power and helps bolster each partner’s long term financial planning goals.

The mortgage “lock in effect,” where homeowners are locked into a rate lower than 4%, will continue to strain inventory. This creates a reduction of both buyers and sellers, as current homeowners are reluctant to sell and find a different home at a higher rate. Any reduction in mortgage rates should help alleviate some of this log jam.

Forecasting into 2024, we will most likely be seeing more programs become available as lenders adjust their guidelines and overlays to accommodate buyers and adjust for a continued seller’s market. There continues to be a need to bring new buyers into the housing market by some non-traditional paths. Educating another generation of homeowners on these new programs and developments will be of paramount importance. Continued outreach and education will strengthen the industry’s ability to keep opening doors for Vermont homeowners.

 

Spruce Disclaimer: The information in this report is for informational purposes only and does not represent an offer or commitment to provide any product or service. Any rate quotes, prices or the physical information included have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Any mentions of third-party names, products, and services are for referential purposes only and are not meant to imply any sponsorship, endorsement, or affiliation unless otherwise noted. This information is based on current market conditions and is subject to change without notice

Chittenden County Market Results

Chittenden County Home for sale
71-73 Highlands Drive Williston VT ~ Gorgeous 2,000+ sf home, woodworking shop with bathroom, & separate 2+ garage on 3 acres with mixed use zoning.

Single-Family January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$550,000 +7.8% $610,596 +3.1%967 -14.6%1,110 -11.4%25 +31.6%

Condos January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$370,500 +5.6% $414,177 +6.0%501 -22.1%570 -11.4%22 +10.0%

Chittenden Median Sale Price by TypeWhile prices for single-family homes have increased across the county by 42% since 2020, growth has moderated in 2023 at a 7% increase. Homeowners have seen increased equity over the past few years, while benefiting as the largest portion of their living expenses – their mortgage – remained stable. Although buyer demand remained strong, a drop of 11% in new listings resulted in a decline of closed sales. 

Some buyers, many who paused searches due to rising interest rates, will reenter the market this spring to face competitive offers. This is more frequent in the more affordable price ranges. The decline in new listings is predicted to moderate as lifestyle factors encourage many sellers to maximize gains and make long delayed moves.

Several new construction projects in the county neared completion in 2023 which affected the new inventory coming to market as well as the number of closed sales. In the spring, Hillside East in South Burlington introduced one of the nation’s first 100% fossil fuel and carbon-free, climate resilient neighborhoods. With construction well underway, and more than a dozen homes scheduled for completion and closing by this summer, a variety of single-family homes and townhomes are available for reservation in the already established community.

In Chittenden County, Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman Agents represented clients in more than 1 in 4 sales. Buying or selling your home is a big deal – the experience and results your Agent and real estate brokerage offer should be, too.

MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2022UNITS SOLDVS 2022NEWLY LISTEDVS 2022DAYS ON MARKET
Chittenden County Single-Family$550,0007.80%967-14.60%111011.10%25
Bolton$521,000-14.00%8100.00%90.10%18
Burlington$565,0008.70%142-25.70%1581.60%27
Charlotte$852,50021.80%28-31.70%370.40%34
Colchester$497,5002.70%108-1.80%1431.40%25
Essex$485,0007.80%134-26.00%1391.40%28
Hinesburg$578,50019.30%30-30.20%360.40%14
Huntington$446,00033.20%6-72.70%70.10%12
Jericho$548,00011.80%4014.30%540.50%15
Milton$454,7509.10%9419.00%1001.00%36
Richmond$705,00041.40%254.20%280.30%17
Shelburne$725,000-5.20%57-32.90%650.70%29
South Burlington$632,4504.50%1454.30%1671.70%19
St. George$681,00069.50%775.00%50.10%53
Underhill$620,00015.20%2920.80%330.30%17
Westford$584,00038.10%14-12.50%190.20%10
Williston$608,0000.90%73-27.00%820.80%32
Winooski$375,0003.30%27-20.60%280.30%16

MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2022UNITS SOLDVS 2022NEWLY LISTEDVS 2022DAYS ON MARKET
Chittenden County Condo$370,5005.60%501-22.10%570-11.40%22
Bolton$283,0009.40%5-50.00%6-45.50%4
Burlington$369,250-7.70%90-32.30%97-32.20%21
Charlotte$620,00067.60%10.00%2100.00%0
Colchester$373,50013.20%54-22.90%55-14.10%22
Essex$365,0007.40%85-20.60%1011.00%11
Hinesburg$290,000-27.70%3-70.00%4-63.60%4
Jericho$375,00028.60%5150.00%8700.00%6
Milton$345,00026.40%2353.30%3545.80%126
Richmond$355,0004.40%1-50.00%1-50.00%7
Shelburne$599,46639.40%2821.70%2833.30%50
South Burlington$340,0003.00%130-33.70%148-22.10%13
Williston$435,0004.80%55-6.80%600.00%16
Winooski$365,0001.10%2140.00%2566.70%12

Addison County Market Results

Two Homes being sold together in Ferrisburgh Vermont
46 & 58 Riverview Street, Ferrisburgh, VT ~ This exceptional property has 2 homes nestled on the banks of Otter Creek with Lake Champlain access.

Single-Family January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$404,000 +3.9% $490,373 +6.8%278 -8.9%319 -7.5%30 -6.3%

Condos January-December 2023
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$325,000 +5.7% $361,542 +2.0%18 0.0%20 +53.9%22 -8.3%

The real estate market in Addison County is not immune to the trends seen across other counties in this report although at a more moderate pace. The number of single-family homes sales declined by 27 units, while the number of new listings on the market dropped by 26 units.

The median sale price increased by nearly 4% in 2023, with a cumulative increase of 42% since 2020. Panton, Leicester, Weybridge, and Cornwall posted significantly higher median sale prices than the county median of $404,000.

Middlebury, Bristol, Ferrisburgh, Monkton, Orwell, and Vergennes proved the most popular with the greatest number of sales, however far fewer new listings as compared to last year.

With a small number of transactions in many towns, the data can show dramatic swings in one direction or the other.

MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2022UNITS SOLDVS 2022NEWLY LISTEDVS 2022DAYS ON MARKET
Addison County Single-Family$404,0003.90%278-8.90%319-7.50%30
Addison$514,5003.40%10-37.50%12-36.80%70
Bridport$300,0003.50%1157.10%1677.80%13
Bristol$394,0001.30%28-9.70%32-3.00%21
Cornwall$565,000-10.30%1427.30%140.00%35
Ferrisburgh$490,000-14.90%26-7.10%30-3.20%22
Goshen$192,035-48.10%3-25.00%6200.00%64
Granville$144,000-56.10%4-33.30%4-20.00%46
Hancock$290,00028.90%566.70%6100.00%40
Leicester$526,50075.50%12-20.00%11-38.90%52
Lincoln$495,00028.00%6-66.70%9-55.00%22
Middlebury$400,0008.80%39-15.20%41-22.60%24
Monkton$424,900-6.60%17-22.70%21-8.70%8
New Haven$493,7508.50%12-14.30%14-17.70%33
Orwell$294,500-25.40%1838.50%1926.70%40
Panton$1,906,500515.00%5-44.40%6-33.30%3
Ripton$306,000-36.30%5400.00%4300.00%116
Salisbury$510,00022.90%9-18.20%1660.00%35
Shoreham$390,000-9.10%11120.00%1344.40%25
Starksboro$395,00046.30%1362.50%1344.40%22
Vergennes$345,0007.50%18-25.00%19-29.60%27
Waltham$499,500-21.20%4300.00%4100.00%9
Weybridge$533,50018.00%6-25.00%7-46.20%41
Whiting$335,9753.50%2-50.00%2-33.30%5