Early 2023 Vermont Market Report

Hillside at O’Brien Farm is a 30+ acre neighborhood of thoughtfully designed, energy efficient homes in the heart of South Burlington.

As we review the real estate market results for 2022 and try to predict the market trends for 2023, one thing remains true – real estate is local. We will attempt to cut through the clutter and the sensational headlines to bring you a local and relevant perspective on real estate in northwest Vermont including Chittenden, Addison, Franklin and Grand Isle Counties.

Single-Family January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$429,900 +11.8%
$501,166 +13.7%

2,125 -20.3%
2,371 -16.8%
25 -34.2%
Condo January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$340,000 +23.6% $384,461 +21.2%
706 -5.9%
700 -12.9%
21 -27.6%
Multi-Family January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$490,000 +14.0% $510,618 -5.4%
183 -25% 204 -32.9%
54 -8.5%

Land January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$138,500 +32.2% $210,407 +23.1%234 -27.3% 322 -14.1%154 -35%

In summing up 2022, the story of the year was mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates ended 2021 and opened 2022 just below 3% on a 30-year fixed rate, conventional loan. By mid-year, rates doubled, eclipsing 7.0%. By December, they had settled at 5.875% to the low 6% range. Inflation was the biggest driver of the rate increases as the Federal Reserve took action and began hiking the Fed Funds rate. Investors are starting to breathe a sigh of relief that the worst inflation may be behind us, but with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) still higher than the Fed prefers, mortgage rates may stay in the high 5% to low 6% range through most of 2023, with a modest adjustment not expected until Q4 of 2023.

What does that mean for buyers interested in purchasing a home? When you find a home that you like, buy it! Interest rates will likely never return to the 3% range we have benefited from over the past few years. The median sale price of homes has been increasing and will continue to do so in 2023 (although not at the rate of the past 3 years). And, inventory remains limited. The saying we keep hearing is “Marry the home, date the rate!” Many buyers are now considering adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to keep their payments a bit lower in the short term. If you commit to a home, you will have the opportunity to refinance if and when mortgage interest rates go down.

The biggest factor impacting the real estate market both locally and nationally is the deficit of inventory. Nationally, this deficit is estimated to be 3.8 million homes. Locally, the Vermont Futures Project has estimated the immediate deficit to be 5000 homes; although this may be underestimating the problem. We are not digging our way out of the problem as we continue to “under build.” New construction plays a critical role; however, it is not meeting demand for a variety of reasons including labor shortages, construction costs, and land development costs. In northwest Vermont, there were double digit declines in the number of closed sales across all property types (residential, multi family, and land) in 2022. These declines do not reflect consumer demand but are a direct result of the lack of properties available for sale. In the past 2 years, the number of single-family homes and condos for sale monthly, has dropped 28%.

During December of 2022, there were only 384 properties available across northwest Vermont – compared to 659 in December of 2020.At the peak of the traditional 2022 real estate season, there were only 694 residential properties for sale with 330 going Under Contract. This calculates to only 2 months’ supply of inventory on the market – continuing a strong seller’s market. A balanced market (not a seller’s nor buyer’s market) would have approximately 4-6 months’ supply of inventory for sale. The number of homes for sale won’t increase significantly in 2023 as many homeowners do not want to lose their current low mortgage rate. Sellers will continue to move for life transitions such as career changes, family status changes, or aging out of a home.

In 2023, sellers should adjust their expectations. With higher interest rates, there still are buyers out there but not as many as 2021 and early 2022. Sellers will still reap the benefits of strong equity positions in their homes. Offers may come with inspection and financing contingencies. Understanding the current market conditions affecting their home, sellers will benefit from working with an experienced Agent who can guide them to closing with the best terms for them.

A stable and uneventful market is what we need over the next few years. Experts are predicting modest price growth in 2023. In northwest Vermont, we estimate a 3 – 5% increase in prices depending on the market segment. Properties priced below $600,000 and properties in move-in condition will continue to be in strong demand. The shock of the recent interest rate increases will give way to acceptance by buyers.

Millennials and Gen Z view real estate to be a means to build wealth as well as contribute to their quality of life. A recent Chase Home Lending survey found that 2 in 5 first time home buyers were living with family in order to save for a home. 58% of those surveyed think they will be ready to buy in the next 12 months. Indeed, home ownership continues to be the American dream.

Chittenden County Market Results

131 Main Street, Burlington, VT ~ Renovated from a former law office by an award-winning builder & architect. 1st floor flat with 10’ ceilings & expansive living space.
Single-Family January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$509,500 +15.8% $592,113 +14.1%
1,130 -19.6%
1,253 -17%
19 -24%
Condo January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$350,500 +25.2% $390,289 +20.7%
642 -3.8%
642 -7.2%
20 -31%

The demand for homes in Chittenden County remained strong throughout 2022, with a slight slow down during the second half of the year. With limited inventory – a decline of 17% for single family homes and 7% for condos – median sale prices rose substantially.

Less units sold in 2022 is not a reflection of the number of buyers participating in the market. Many purchasers faced multiple offers, needing to exercise patience while working closely with their REALTOR to close on a home that met their needs. The median sale price of a single-family home has risen 43% since 2019. Homeowners have built equity, while keeping the largest portion of their living expenses – their mortgage – stable. For this reason, buyers should remain in the market. The opportunity to build wealth, manage your housing expenses, and enjoy the many benefits of homeownership simply do not exist as a renter.

 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Chittenden County Single-Family
$509,500 15.80%1,130-19.60%1,253-17.00%19
Bolton
$606,000 66.10%4-33.30%5-28.60%22
Burlington
$519,900 15.30%191-9.50%229-1.30%15
Charlotte
$700,000 7.70%412.50%38-17.40%37
Colchester
$484,500 8.70%110-29.50%122-29.10%28
Essex
$450,000 12.50%181-10.80%187-18.00%15
Hinesburg
$485,000 10.90%43-6.50%479.30%17
Huntington
$334,750 -13.50%2229.40%239.50%28
Jericho
$490,000 -2.00%35-39.70%34-45.20%23
Milton
$416,500 18.00%78-39.50%92-31.90%20
Richmond
$498,500 -5.50%24-14.30%25-28.60%8
Shelburne
$765,000 11.70%85-14.10%96-5.00%21
South Burlington
$605,000 16.40%139-29.40%147-24.20%19
St. George
$401,850 -27.30%4-63.60%8-11.10%6
Underhill
$486,500 9.30%23-17.90%27-10.00%18
Westford
$423,000 3.60%16-38.50%19-20.80%22
Williston
$602,500 9.60%1006.40%12315.00%17
Winooski
$362,950 5.20%34-40.40%31-51.60%8
 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Chittenden County Condo$350,500 25.20%642-3.80%642-7.20%20
Bolton
$258,600 30.60%10-16.70%110.00%5
Burlington
$400,000 32.90%13324.30%14336.20%13
Charlotte
$370,000 -14.90%1-75.00%1-75.00%25
Colchester
$330,000 24.50%70-9.10%64-21.00%31
Essex
$340,000 36.40%107-23.60%100-22.50%12
Hinesburg$401,250 44.90%10-16.70%1122.20%9
Jericho$291,500 -3.80%2-80.00%1-90.00%5
Milton$273,000 10.40%15-25.00%249.10%28
Richmond$340,000 14.70%20.00%2100.00%7
Shelburne$430,000 48.80%23-8.00%21-34.40%27
South Burlington$330,000 17.00%1952.10%189-11.70%26
Williston$415,000 18.20%5928.30%6020.00%9
Winooski$361,000 18.40%15-28.60%15-37.50%40

Addison County Market Results

404 Pea Ridge Road, Ferrisburgh, VT ~ A remarkable opportunity to own a contemporary home situated on 50+ acres in Ferrisburgh with stunning Adirondack views.
Single-Family January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$389,000 +14.2%
$459,171 +15.3%
305 -27.7%
345 -20.7%
32 -45.8%
Condo January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$307,500 +20.6%
$354,547 +22.4%
18 -35.7%
13 -48.0%
24 -54.7%

The median sale price of homes in Addison County continued its multi-year surge led by towns like Ferrisburgh, Vergennes, and Bristol. Despite reaching a record high median sale price of $389,000 for a single-family home, the county is still more affordable than nearby Chittenden County. With declining inventory of homes for sale, well prepared buyers moved quickly to purchase a property when they found one, resulting in a list to contract of only 32 days on the market. Addison County offers the quintessential Vermont life experience of farm to table dining options, art galleries, and diversified employment opportunities – all with easy access to Lake Champlain and the mountains

 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Addison County Single-Family$389,000 14.20%305-27.70%345-20.70%32
Addison
$497,500 -7.90%16-5.90%190.00%35
Bridport
$290,000 -10.60%7-61.10%9-35.70%13
Bristol
$389,000 20.30%31-27.90%33-15.40%20
Cornwall
$630,000 15.80%11-21.40%147.70%23
Ferrisburgh
$576,000 69.70%280.00%3114.80%26
Goshen
$369,750 73.70%433.30%2-50.00%58
Granville
$327,713 118.50%620.00%5-44.40%136
Hancock
$225,000 60.10%3-57.10%3-40.00%11
Leicester
$300,000 -0.40%15-16.70%185.90%15
Lincoln
$386,750 12.10%1820.00%2042.90%49
Middlebury
$367,500 0.70%46-32.40%53-20.90%28
Monkton
$455,000 8.30%22-8.30%23-4.20%28
New Haven
$455,000 8.30%14-36.40%17-26.10%15
Orwell
$395,000 41.10%13-43.50%15-42.30%35
Panton
$310,000 -23.50%9-10.00%9-10.00%21
Ripton
$480,000 37.50%1-83.30%1-87.50%8
Salisbury
$415,000 23.00%11-45.00%10-58.30%52
Shoreham
$429,000 30.00%5-66.70%9-52.60%43
Starksboro
$270,000 1.10%8-42.90%9-50.00%46
Vergennes
$321,000 21.10%24-17.20%27-15.60%29
Waltham
$634,000 74.50%1-83.30%2-60.00%18
Weybridge
$452,000 -4.80%8-38.50%138.30%19
Whiting
$324,500 22.70%40.00%3-50.00%111

Franklin County Market Results

3777 Maquam Shore Road, St. Albans Town, VT ~ This well-maintained 3-bedroom Log home sits on 2.32 acres of land with picturesque views.
Single-Family January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$330,000 +11.9%
$342,644 +10.9%
552 -17.7%
618 -14.8%
32 -28.9%
Condo January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$295,000 +20.4%
$311,712 +23.1%
45 -16.7%
40 -53.5%
37 +85.0%

The Franklin County market is trending similarly to other counties in northwest Vermont. A decline in the number of newly listed properties resulted in a nearly 18% decline in the number of properties sold. Again, Buyer demand was strong with properties remaining on the market for only 32 days on average; down 29% from 2021. The median price of a single-family home has increased by 41% since 2019. Despite this rise, homes in Franklin County remain the most affordable in the region.

 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Franklin County Single-Family
$330,000 11.90%552-17.70%618-14.80%32
Bakersfield
$300,000 -9.60%15-21.10%11-47.60%52
Berkshire
$297,000 21.20%14-17.70%15-11.80%29
Enosburg
$277,000 38.50%320.00%3918.20%18
Fairfax
$405,000 6.60%55-26.70%67-13.00%17
Fairfield
$377,500 39.80%8-46.70%10-37.50%29
Fletcher
$425,000 14.10%9-55.00%8-65.20%60
Franklin
$332,500 11.80%18-10.00%2623.80%44
Georgia
$395,000 16.20%59-19.20%63-26.70%24
Highgate
$302,000 12.90%4033.30%4412.80%36
Montgomery
$305,000 27.10%25-7.40%25-16.70%68
Richford
$237,000 69.90%24-33.30%4021.20%63
Sheldon
$302,000 -5.00%17-34.60%20-25.90%21
St. Albans
$340,000 17.20%150-20.20%152-21.20%26
Swanton
$299,500 10.90%86-7.50%98-10.10%33

Grand Isle County Market Results

648 South Main Street, Alburgh, VT ~ Beautiful 3-bedroom, year-round lakefront property with so many options…let your imagination run wild!
Single Family January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$392,500 +3.3%
$483,360 +14.8%
138 -17.4%
155 -13.4%

39 -40.9%
Condo January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$455,000 +26.4%
$455,000 +26.4%
1

5

27

Grand Isle County benefitted from the changing buyer patterns throughout the pandemic when buyers were drawn to the beautiful landscape, lakeshore property, and many had the option to work remotely. With a small number of sales each year, the median and average sale prices in Grand Isle County can be affected by 1 or 2 large sales. The number of days on market (DOM) is just over one month – a steep decline over 2021. This demonstrates strong buyer demand while the number of homes for sale continues to decline.

 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Grand Isle County Single-Family
$392,500 3.30%138-17.40%155-13.40%39
Alburgh
$270,000 1.00%472.20%47-14.60%66
Grand Isle
$425,000 11.80%29-25.60%31-24.40%16
Isle La Motte
$331,500 27.50%14-6.70%2222.20%33
North Hero
$429,900 2.40%29-25.60%32-5.90%33
South Hero
$630,000 33.80%19-32.10%23-25.80%24

Lamoille County Market Results

Perhaps most known for its mountains, Lamoille County is home to Stowe Mountain and Smuggler’s Notch.
Single-Family January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Days on Market:
$319,043 +6.3%
$388,210 +5.4%
612 -28.9%
30 0%
Condo January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Days on Market:
$279,700 +30%
$352,583 +41%
110 -31%
27 -50%

Although our Vermont Market Report has traditionally focused on northwest Vermont, buyer patterns have changed in recent years. Many people considering lifestyle and virtual work options can expand their search criteria as inventory tightened and prices increased in neighboring counties. Our Agents are able to provide market knowledge and skilled negotiation no matter where you search for your next Vermont property.

The median sale price across Lamoille County has increased 52% since 2019. This number is significantly affected by the sales in Stowe which have surged over the past few years. The other towns in Lamoille County offer homes priced well under the county median for buyers to consider.

Washington County All Property Types
MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKETVS 2021
Barre City$238,530 12.30%111-1.80%25-32.40%
Barre Town
$286,000 4.00%126-5.30%3317.90%
Berlin
$350,000 10.90%29-19.40%34-29.10%
Cabot
$325,000 25.00%15-48.30%73-7.60%
Calais
$350,000 8.00%14-51.70%555.80%
Duxbury
$328,000 -13.70%12-29.40%32100.00%
East Montpelier
$368,000 14.40%28-20.00%19-77.40%
Fayston
$425,000 47.60%35-12.50%33-62.90%
Marshfield
$277,500 29.10%1416.70%47-51.60%
Middlesex
$358,500 30.30%17-41.40%300%
Montpelier
$370,000 27.60%83-2.40%20-200%
Moretown
$387,500 9.10%14-50.00%365.90%
Northfield
$285,000 11.10%47-26.60%28-45.10%
Waitsfield
$328,000 -13.70%12-29.40%32100.00%
Warren
$368,000 14.40%28-20.00%19-77.40%

Vermont Luxury Home Market Results

189 Cliff Street, Burlington, VT ~ This landmark property in Burlington’s Hill Section features a striking Redstone exterior.
Northwest Vermont Luxury January-December 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$1,300,000 +5.5%

$1,680,585 +5.7%
93 +25.7%
74 -3.9%
39 -31.0%
Chittenden County Luxury January-June 2022  
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$1,305,000 +4.0%
$1,696,587 +2.6%
69 +17.5%
53 -13.1%
40 -26.3%

High demand for luxury homes across the state and locally in northwest Vermont continued in 2022. The luxury market continues to reach historic levels as consumers with means chose to add another home to their portfolios – or acted upon their dream of living in rural areas or locations aligned with their values. Buyers from within Vermont sought views, flexible spaces, and high-end amenities.

The number of newly listed properties did not satisfy consumer demand with only 74 properties coming to market and 93 units sold. There was a nearly 26% increase in luxury homes sold last year versus 2021. At mid-year 2022, we thought that buyer demand, fewer available homes, and changes from the Federal Reserve may cool the luxury market. That was not the case as the luxury buyer is less affected by rising mortgage interest rates like the rest of the market. Buyers watched for the perfect home to hit the market, commonly alerted by their Agent, and snapped up the property often amidst multiple offers. The average days on the market dropped from 59 days in 2021 to only 39 days in 2022.

We have provided the 2022 luxury sales by county for northwest Vermont highlighting some of the top towns as well. Globally, Luxury Property Specialists aligned with Coldwell Banker are among the best, exceeding expectations for their discerning clients every day. In 2022, Coldwell Banker affiliated agents closed $267 million in Luxury sales daily with an average sale price of $1.9million.

Locally, our Agents closed 1 in 4 luxury transactions in northwest Vermont – far more than any other company in the area. Our skilled Agents and our 360-degree marketing approach combine to share the beauty of luxury homes with an affluent audience nationally and internationally.

CountyTop townsUnits ClosedMedian Sale PriceAverage Sale PriceLowHigh
Addison15$1,290,000 $1,544,333 $1,000,000 $2,800,000
Chittenden69$1,305,000 $1,696,587 $1,000,000 $10,250,000
Burlington 16$1,315,000 $1,439,312 $1,024,000 $2,500,000
Charlotte9$1,501,000 $2,073,407 $1,300,000 $6,063,000
Essex4$1,202,500 $1,201,250 $1,000,000 $1,400,000
Hinesburg5$1,150,000 $1,163,000 $1,000,000 $1,360,000
Jericho 2$1,107,500 $1,107,500 $1,065,000 $1,150,000
Shelburne19$1,308,500 $2,276,500 $1,025,000 $10,250,000
Williston4$1,239,500 $1,233,500 $1,080,000 $1,375,000
Franklin2$1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,150,000 $1,250,000
Grand Isle7$1,650,000 $1,952,129 $1,100,000 $3,500,000

Washington County Market Results

722 Tebbetts Road, Woodbury, VT ~ Custom-built Swedish Cope Log home on 76 acres with lake & mountain views.
Single-Family January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Days on Market:
$319,043 +6.3%
$388,210 +5.4%
612 -28.9%
30 0%
Condo January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Days on Market:
$279,700 +30%
$352,583 +41%
110 -31%
27 -50%

With easy access to I-89 for commuting north or south, and an affordable median sale price, we have represented more buyers and sellers in Washington County over the past couple of years. A 33% increase in the median price since 2019 puts current homeowners in a strong equity position, while still providing affordability for buyers. City living, proximity to ski resorts, and lovely country property – Washington County offers diverse housing options and great quality of life.

Washington County All Property Types
MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKETVS 2021
Barre City$238,530 12.30%111-1.80%25-32.40%
Barre Town
$286,000 4.00%126-5.30%3317.90%
Berlin
$350,000 10.90%29-19.40%34-29.10%
Cabot
$325,000 25.00%15-48.30%73-7.60%
Calais
$350,000 8.00%14-51.70%555.80%
Duxbury
$328,000 -13.70%12-29.40%32100.00%
East Montpelier
$368,000 14.40%28-20.00%19-77.40%
Fayston
$425,000 47.60%35-12.50%33-62.90%
Marshfield
$277,500 29.10%1416.70%47-51.60%
Middlesex
$358,500 30.30%17-41.40%300%
Montpelier
$370,000 27.60%83-2.40%20-200%
Moretown
$387,500 9.10%14-50.00%365.90%
Northfield
$285,000 11.10%47-26.60%28-45.10%
Waitsfield
$328,000 -13.70%12-29.40%32100.00%
Warren
$368,000 14.40%28-20.00%19-77.40%

Multi-Family Home Market Results

24-28 Orchard Terrace, Burlington, VT ~ 4-unit Multi-family in a prime student rental neighborhood with 12 bedrooms.
Multi-Family January-December 2022 
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Days on Market:
$490,000 4.0%183 -25.0%204 -32.9%54 -8.5%

The multi-family market continues to provide purchasers with solid and predictable investment opportunities. In northwest Vermont, the median sale price rose 14% and in Chittenden County – where 75% of the multi-family sales occur – prices increased by 9.4%. Once again, these increases are driven in large part by strong demand from local and regional investors, lack of inventory, and the increases in rents for the 2022-2023 cycle. Rents had been stable the previous 2 years as landlords held off on increases during the pandemic.

The Chittenden County rental vacancy rate remains below 1%, and despite several new developments coming to the market, locally we still suffer from a lack of available rental properties. Well-located and well-maintained properties, as usual, continue to draw the most interest and are selling quickly and, in many cases, at or above list price.

 MEDIAN SALE PRICEVS 2021UNITS SOLDVS 2021NEWLY LISTEDVS 2021DAYS ON MARKET
Chittenden County$525,000 9.40%136-22.70%155-29.90%39
Addison County$312,500 -15.00%16-20.00%20-20.00%109
Franklin County$258,000 11.60%28-33.30%26-51.90%103
Grand Isle County$385,000 300.00%3-50.00%$3-25.00%12

Chittenden County Rental Market

Church Street Marketplace in downtown Burlington

In 2022, 291 new units were brought to market. In 2023, 501 apartment units are scheduled for completion. As of December 2022, nearly 80% of these were already under construction as they are slated to open in the first half of 2023. While this new product is positive, the increase in available units is not expected to substantially impact the vacancy rate. Demand continues to put pressure on the available supply.

Construction projects planned for Burlington, South Burlington, and Colchester account for almost 64% of total unit growth. Of these units, 80% of them will be rented at the Market Rate. No senior housing was constructed in 2022, but 23 units of market rate senior rentals are expected to be completed in 2023.

Average monthly rent increased 5.5% from 2021 to 2022; up from 2.7% during the prior timeframe.Source: Allen, Brooks, & Minor Report, December 2022

Source: Allen, Brooks, & Minor Report, December 2022