Mid-Year 2019 Market Report

Breathtaking from the moment you arrive, this 4 bedroom 3 bathroom Charlotte Colonial is captivating & comfortable both inside & out. MLS# 4763541
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$300,000 (+5.3%) $343,918 (+9.5%)1006 (+1.3%)1743 (+.8%)81 (-18.2%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$239,950 (+9.3%)$268,129 (+5.7%)330 (-7.6%)415 (-18.8%)80 (+11.1%)

The mid-year point is an important milestone for real estate trends, especially in northwest Vermont. We are in the midst of the traditional “height of the market.” Closings on real estate sales surge in June, July, and August in between the school year, vacations, holidays and other life events that typically drive the market. In addition to single family and condominium sales – this report looks at results and trends in luxury & multi-family sales – as well as land sales throughout the region.

Low inventory continues to be the story in the national and local housing market. Properties coming on the market have been in short supply for a few years resulting in less sales, while demand remains strong. Steadfast price growth for homes in northwest Vermont is good news for sellers but has challenged some buyers trying to get into the market. Competition for properties under $400,000 may not let up for quite some time.

So far in 2019, first-time buyers only accounted for 31% of home sales – well below the historic market share of 40% according to the National Association of REALTORS. There remain several reasons first time buyers are struggling to get in the market: student debt, starter home inventory in short supply, and credit score requirements are tighter than historic norms.

Nationally & locally, new construction levels have failed to keep pace with population growth, shifting demographic preferences and the aging housing stock. Vermont has the second oldest housing stock in the country. Builders face challenges in land, permit and material costs, as well as shortages in labor. In some communities, neighbors are raising concerns about the loss of green space and wildlife habitats. Strong voices are needed for zoning and regulatory changes that many local governments are weighing as a way to increase housing density and improve affordability.

At a recent Burlington Housing Summit, the topic of Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU’s) added to existing homes was presented as an innovative way to tackle housing shortages. Fannie Mae is funding a pilot program in Denver to add ADU’s to low and middle income housing which will also generate extra income for homeowners. This type of infill housing helps support multi-generational living and allows aging homeowners to stay put longer since they can rent the ADU or primary residence to earn extra income and help with home maintenance. Zoning and permitting restrictions along with the cost of adding ADU’s needs to be considered if this to be a viable solution.

Homeowners are staying put longer. On average, homeowner tenure is 8-10 years vs. 5-7 years less than a decade ago. With rising home prices and tenure increasing, real estate wealth of homeowners is growing (total asset value minus outstanding mortgage). In many cases, the wealth held by older generations is transferring to first-time buyers. According to a recent NAR survey, first time savings counts (measured in 10 states) allowed “grandma” to make deposits, and 1/3 of first-time buyers had help from family members.

Throughout this report, you may see the terms “affordable or more affordable” used when describing a particular housing type or a particular city or town. Affordability is a relative term since Vermont – particularly northwest Vermont – is not, on average, as affordable as other parts of the country such as the midwest or south. The median price of homes in northwest Vermont, at $300,000, surpasses the national median price of $261,600. Coupled with high property taxes, the cost of living in Vermont may not be “affordable” for some. Having said that, for the purposes of this report we are comparing our markets and identifying properties and towns that may have a median price below other counties or the regional average.

Northwest Vermont Real Estate Market Share ChartDemographically, millennials have overtaken baby boomers as the largest US adult population – and they’re starting to buy homes. Statistically, they make up 45% of the home buying population. When the full buying potential of this population is realized – and the housing supply issue has been addressed, solid home sales growth should follow.

Buyers who are at a point in their life where they are ready and able to buy will find today’s prices coupled with low interest rates are an advantage over long term rentals.

First Quarter Market Report 2019

Functioning B&B with attached apartment, guest cottage, spacious barn, and ample storage. in Shelburne  | Homes for Sale on Lake Champlain
Median Sale PriceAverage Sale PriceUnits SoldNewly ListedDays on Market
Single-Family$290,000 (5.1%)$323,786 (10.3%)353 (1.2%)599 (2%)91 (-22.2%)
Condos$230,000 (12.2%)$256,677 (6.2%)113 (-6.6%)151 (-16.6%)77 (-6.1%)
Multi-Family$315,000 (1.6%)$377,274 (-19.4%)23 (-41%)57 (72.7%)59 (-50.4%)
Land$120,000 (42.5%)$149,432 (-14.4%)31 (-26.2%)103 (4%)288 (9.5%)

Historically, the first 3 months of the year represent the slowest period for sales. With a smaller number of sales, data within this report can be affected in a positive or negative direction without truly representing a trend in the market.

Our skilled Realtors® can provide you with a more in-depth analysis on specific price points in towns and neighborhoods. Given our market leading position, we are prepared to provide unparalleled service to our clients.

The same market dynamics that we have reported over the past 2-3 years continue to play out in northwest Vermont. Shrinking inventory of homes for sale and pent up buyer demand have resulted in an increase in median and average sale prices across most market segments. Mortgage interest rates have declined recently after an uptick during 2018, keeping buyers in the market and willing to pay more for updated homes. With limited cash available for renovations, buyers are willing to take on a higher mortgage payment for homes with renovated kitchens, bathrooms, flooring and other amenities. Sellers may want to take advantage of this opportune time to list their home while demand is strong.

Early 2019 Market Report

Functioning B&B with attached apartment, guest cottage, spacious barn, and ample storage. in Shelburne  MLS# 4733212
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$293,000 (+5.8%)$325,542 (+3.3%)2,275 (-0.8%)3,098 (-2%)87 (-12.1%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$230,000 (+1%)$260,105 (+1.4%)752 (+6.5%)892 (+11.6%)70 (-15.7%)

Our early 2019 Market Report provides a recap of real estate sales throughout the four counties in northwest Vermont: Addison, Chittenden, Franklin and Grand Isle. In addition to residential real estate sales, we look at results and trends in luxury & multi family home sales – as well as land sales throughout the region.

Low inventory continues to be the story in the local and national housing market. Properties coming on the market for sale have been in short supply for a few years resulting in fewer closed sales while demand remains strong. Steadfast price growth for single and multi-family homes in northwest Vermont is good news for sellers – and has challenged some first-time home buyers who were caught in multiple offer scenarios in certain hot price points and locations.

2018 was a volatile year for the stock markets – with the DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ending the year lower than they started – the first time that has happened since 2008. Having said that, the markets spent most of 2018 climbing rather than falling- with never before seen heights. While the markets ended down -the overall economy soared. The economic expansion has been driven for years by historically low interest rates. After a several adjustments in 2018, the federal reserve is less eager to raise rates at the same pace and has already trimmed its forecast for expected rate hikes in 2019. Most experts project an average of 5.25% by the end of this year. While interest rates have risen slightly– they are still relatively low. And consumer spending is thriving. These are indications of a healthy economy for 2019 – even if not at the same pace as before. The federal government shut down has impacted the economy as well as the housing market – with furloughed government employees unable to provide a recent pay stub in order to prove current employment to mortgage lenders resulting in delays or cancellation of some home purchases. The full effect remains to be seen.

The overall trend in home sales has been positive since 2011 on a national and local level. In some larger markets across the country markets have begun to slow however Vermont benefits from relative stability with moderate growth year over year. The National Association of REALTORS’ Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, cites home price increases moderating in 2019. Tight inventory conditions remain an ongoing concern that will keep prices relatively elevated, but stable.

New construction projects may ease the shortage somewhat, but the need for affordable homes is not being met. Builders face challenges in land, permit and materials cost as well as shortages in labor which has been putting the price of new homes in the area well above $400,000. Some communities are challenging new developments, with neighbors raising concerns about the loss of green space and wildlife habitats. The quality of life that draws people to Vermont needs to be carefully balanced with the cost of living in our beautiful state.

Millennials make up to 45% of the home buyer market and affordability is a factor. Heavy student loan debt and changing interest rates affect purchase power. For a $300,000 loan – a 1% increase in interest rate equates to an additional $178 per month to the mortgage payment. Working with a local lender – with a common-sense approach to underwriting – will benefit purchasers navigating this market. With most home buyers purchasing property for lifestyle reasons, many are quick to recognize that buying a home is a way to build wealth in the long run.

2019 will remain a Seller’s market in most of the region, with a true “buyer’s market” not on the immediate horizon due to limited inventory, increasing prices and interest rates. Buyers should not stay away from the housing market especially if they are at point in their life where they are ready and able to buy. Buyers who have watched from the sideline and now fear missing out on their dream of home ownership – or risk facing higher finance costs to do so – should act now! They may face less competition early in the season and sellers may still realize a gain on their home sale. This should be a cue for potential sellers to enter the market early in 2019 – rather than waiting for the typical height of the market in the Spring.

Buyers and sellers alike should have these best practices in mind: identify your wants and needs, learn about the market, form reasonable expectations, perform your due diligence, and be prepared to act – with the assistance of a skilled and trusted Realtor.

2018 Fall Market Report

Vermont Fall Real EstateMarket Report 2018
This custom home nestled on 10 private acres, in Hinesburg, is thoughtfully designed to showcase sweeping mountain views and a seasonal view of Lake Iroquois. Homes for Sale in Hinesburg

 

Median Sale PriceAverage Sale PriceUnits SoldNewly ListedDays on Market
Single-Family $289,950 (5.4%) $322,081 (3.5%)1,726 (0.8%)2,654 (-1.2%)89 (-8.3%)
Condos $226,000 (-1.3%) $256,243 (-0.7%)561 (7.7%) 744 (13.1%)70 (-21.4%)

Leaves fall from the trees, boats come out of the lakes, and hunters head for the woods. Welcome to fall in northwest Vermont, and welcome to our Fall 2018 Market Report, January – September 2018.

Each quarter, we combine the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data with the expertise of our agents to offer a recap of real estate activity and trends in the 4 counties of northwest Vermont: Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle.

Our skilled REALTORS can help you with more specific price points in certain cities and towns. Given our market leading position, we are committed to providing unparalleled service to our clients.

The data through the end of the 3rd quarter is significant in that it includes closed sales for the busiest segment of the year. Traditionally, the “height of the market” is considered late spring through summer. The ongoing story in the national and regional market is the contraction of inventory for sale, so it is remarkable that closed sales through the 3rd quarter faired as well as they did. Closed sales of Single-Family homes remain flat across the region while sales of condos, land and multi-family properties show healthy increases over the same period last year. The median price of sold, single family homes continues to rise while prices of Multi-Family homes surged as investors clamor for properties in a tight market.

With mortgage interest rates increasing recently – and additional increases expected, sellers and buyers would be wise to stay in the market during the 4th quarter of 2018 and 1st quarter of 2019, while properties may be in the most demand and at their most affordable.

2018 Mid-Year

This home, a seamless blend of classic & contemporary, is located in Beaver Creek, a desirable neighborhood in Shelburne. MLS# 4700591
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$224,000 (-3.0%)$254,258 (-2.0%)353 (+12.4%)507 (+21.3%)72 (-21.3%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$227,500 (+3.4%)$256,259 (+4.0%)705 (-3.0%)798 (-3.0%)82 (+7.9%)

The Mid-Year point is an important milestone for real estate trends, especially in northwest Vermont. We are in the midst of the traditional “height of the market.” Closings on real estate sales surge in June, July, and August in between the school year, vacations, holidays – with new household formation and other life events that typically drive the market. Our Mid-Year report recaps the inventory and sales of property during the 1st six months – and provides a snapshot of trends we may see in the Fall of 2018.

The number of properties sold, across all categories including single family, condos, multi-family, land and luxury properties, in northwest Vermont increased over the 1st half of 2017. This positive trend reflects strong buyer demand and is a welcomed sign after a moderate, but long-term decline in unit sales. The median and average sale prices continued to rise for single family, multi-family and land sales. Single-family unit sales were up 2.1% over 2017 in the first half. Newly listed properties declined by 6.7%. While inventory levels are still at near record lows, the 2nd quarter showed some moderate improvement.

Condominiums remain a popular choice, often for ease of maintenance and affordability. Newly listed condominiums were up 21.3% year to date with 507 listings. This helped spur a 12.4% increase in sales in the first half of 2018. The median and average sale prices had slight declines at 3.0 and 2.0% respectively.

Days on market dropped to 99 days in the single-family market, down 4.8% from last year and condominiums declined by 21.3% to 72 days on market. Chittenden County is reflecting a 3 months supply on hand in single family and condominiums. A balanced market is considered 5-6 months supply.

Our Vermont market reflects the current national trend of low inventory levels. Lawrence Yun, Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says a solid economy and job market should be generating a much stronger sales pace than what has been seen so far this year across the country.

Rising mortgage rates are also a factor. “This year we saw a move up in mortgage rates, from 4 to 4.5%, which increased the urgency of some buyers to purchase. Combined with limited inventory, a tight rental market, and an uptick in economic activity, we saw increased competition in the first time home buyer/affordable price range. Even with credit standards loosening to encourage more activity these other factors are stretching the budgets of some prospective buyers. Mortgage industry experts say that providing credit is not the problem but rather the current supply of housing not meeting the demand,” says Ranjit “Buddy “ Singh of Spruce Mortgage in Burlington.

Our sales associates have seen continued strong buyer demand, especially in price segments below $350,000. Often these buyers are facing competing offers made on new listings resulting in purchases above asking price, waived inspections, substantial deposits or even cash sales. Some sellers are identifying new properties prior to committing their property to sale and making the successful next purchase a contingency of the sale of their existing property. Timing and coordination are key, and your Realtor can be of great assistance in a tight market.

New housing development in our region, although limited, is a very welcome addition to our market and has given some relief in a few market segments. We expect the current market conditions to continue throughout the 2nd half of 2018.

 

First Quarter 2018

Spectacular Main house with 24′ cathedral ceiling, gracious guest house plus rustic cabin on 24 acres with mountain views & pond in Lincoln. Vermont Luxury Homes
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$276,500 (+11.9%)$294,085 (+5.7%)348 (-2.5%)573 (-12.52%)117 (+6.4%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$207,500 (-15.6%)$243,270 (-13.2%)118 (-0.8%)178 (+12.7%)84 (-29.4%)

Our 1st quarter market update provides an overview of the real estate activity in early 2018 throughout northwest Vermont (Addison, Chittenden, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties). Historically, the first 3 months of the year represent the slowest period for sales. With a smaller number of sales, data within this report can be affected in a positive or negative direction without truly representing a trend in the market.

Median prices rose for single-family homes in northwest Vermont during the first quarter with Addison and Chittenden Counties showing strong increases. Despite a reported decline in median price, which brought pricing back to 2016 levels, Condos still remain a popular option among purchasers looking for ease of maintenance in their home. The number of condos coming on the market increased as a result of new construction in cities such as South Burlington and Williston.

While the number of properties sold dropped year over year, this is a reflection of the limited inventory on the market during the end of 2017 and early 2018. Chittenden County posted an 8% increase in units sold after a weak 1st quarter in 2017.

Early 2018

Hillside at O’Brien Farm is a 30+ acre neighborhood offering 118 energy-efficient homes in South Burlington. www.HillsideAtOBrienFarm.com
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$277,000 (+4.5%)$315,428 (+4.5%))2,290 (+0.1%)3,150 (-3.4%)99 (-1.0%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$227,500 (+3.4%)$256,259 (+4.0%)705 (-3.0%)798 (-3.0%)82 (+7.9%)

If there is comfort in consistency, then rest easy about the real estate market. While other sectors of the U.S. economy have been erratic for the last few years, the real estate market has remained steady since 2015, and that is still the picture in northwestern Vermont.

The year 2017 ended as it started. Inventory remained tight, which caused steadfast price growth. The median price increased for each property type (single family, condos, multi-family, and land) in our four-county region, and the median price of a single-family home jumped by 4.5% to $277,000 compared to the end of 2016. The median condo price was up by 3.4%. These increases were due to declining inventory, which caused multiple-offer situations in some towns and drove prices upward.

Compared to the end of 2016, the median price of a single-family home jumped by: 4.2% (to $322,000) in Chittenden County; 5.3% (to $214,950) in Franklin County; 7.2% (to $260,000) in Addison County; and 9.9% (to $250,000) in Grand Isle County.

Closed sales, by units, were flat to down except in one area: Land sales showed a whopping 5.6% increase over 2016. Since 2015, new listings of single-family homes have dropped by 13%, while newly listed condos have dipped by 12% — evidence to the trend of people moving less; during this same time period, only new listings for land have increased in northwestern Vermont.

Developers know housing inventory is tight, and that new listings have declined, so they are looking at land for new construction. They also know that new construction enhances the economy — from the employment of workers to build it, through the lifespan of the home — and generates new property tax revenue. Developers are building multi-unit neighborhoods such as South Village and Hillside at O’Brien Farm, both in South Burlington, which offer homes for buyers in various price ranges, living various lifestyles. Market trends are showing that buyers — especially Millennials — want smaller, energy-efficient properties with low taxes and small footprints, near communities with amenities. The in-demand price range is currently $250,000-$350,000.

As we mentioned in our last report, if sellers are committed to selling in this market, our agents recommend sellers keep their property on the market year-round. Sellers typically take their homes off the market during winter, but a market with tight inventory also produces more motivated buyers.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the prime lending rate three times this year. Currently, it is just at 4% and is expected to be at 4.5% or 4.7% by the end of 2018, which will have a significant impact on the real estate market. A 1% increase in interest rate can reduce a buyer’s purchase power by approximately 10%. Coupled with another year of increasing median sales prices in the region, means buyers may want to consider purchasing early in 2018.

Whether you are a buyer or seller, be prepared. Buyers should consider a price point but be ready to be flexible in a competitive bidding process, if possible; and buyers should enter the shopping process with some level of pre-approval for financing with a local lender. Sellers should prepare their homes in advance for showings and inspections.

Buyers and sellers must first consider their personal situations. If buyers want to find a property in northwestern Vermont and plan to stay for a few years or longer, they will find something; and sellers should know those buyers are out there. Our thoughtful and creative Realtors are here to help make those connections for a successful closing, for everyone at the table.

Third-Quarter 2017

Mountain views come with this beautifully maintained Carriage Home in Brennan Woods. MLS# 4665216
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$275,000 (+4.3%)$312,985 (+5.3%)1697 (-1.7%)2677 (-7.9%)96 (-1%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$228,500 (+3.9%)$256,916 (+5.2%)517 (-4.4%)653 (-7.5%)88 (+14.3%)

The ongoing story in the national and regional market is the contraction of inventory for sale, so perhaps it is remarkable that sales during the third quarter remained stable in northwestern Vermont, while inventory generally declined.

Third quarter (Q3) activity reflects properties that were put under contract in the spring, with ensuing closings in July, August and September. June is typically the top month for real estate closings, as new households form and consumers work around summer vacations to buy or sell a new home. However, over the past few years, sales have strengthened in Q3, which is evident in this report. A season of strong buyer demand this year likely contributed to a timing of transactions that produced a stable Q3.

In our 4-county region, including Chittenden, Addison, Franklin, and Grand Isle Counties, the number of single-family homes for sale in Q3 was 2,138, compared to 2,367 at this time last year — a decline in inventory. However, demand remained strong. In 2016, 714 single-family homes sold between July and September; 736 were sold in Q3 2017 — a rise in sales.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in Q3 has dropped steadily (nearly 28%) since 2014, when there were 2,960 on the market in Q3. Meanwhile, the number of single-family homes sold has increased 24.5% during that same period. Despite a strong Q3 in terms of closed real estate transactions, the YTD number of single-family homes sold in our 4-county region has dropped by 1.7%, while the number of condos sold has lowered by 4.4% — likely a result of the continuing decline in inventory.

One national and regional trend contributing to lack of inventory is simply that Americans are moving less. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, homeowners are staying in their homes for 10 or more years, compared to a previous national average of seven years.

The tightening of inventory has generated a jump in sold prices. Year-to-date (YTD), the median sale price of a single-family home — with the median price being “half the houses sold for more and half sold for less” — has jumped 4.3%, while the sale price of condos has risen nearly 4%.

The demand for homes and a shrinking stock of inventory has created an unusual number of multiple-offer situations for buyers and sellers. Buyers should consider a price point but be ready to be flexible in a competitive offer circumstance. Buyers should also enter the home buying process with pre-approval for financing from a local lender. Sellers should prepare their homes in advance for showings and inspections.

On the lending side: Mortgage rates are still low — around 3.8% for 30 years — but the national inventory shortage and an unprecedented amount of college debt facing younger generations has slowed the rate of household formation for first-time homebuyers. New lending regulations and restrictions have also posed challenges for first-time homebuyers, while Baby Boomers who are downsizing can sometimes make cash purchases. Sellers and buyers should be aware of this trend when considering multiple-offers. Our thoughtful and skilled Realtors can help with the often speedy, whirlwind competitive bidding process.

In previous years, we have witnessed that homeowners with properties on the market tend to take them off the market in the fourth quarter during the holiday season. However, if sellers are committed to selling, our agents recommend they keep their property on the market through the winter, because this is when motivated buyers, who must move for any reason, such as job relocation — are looking for a new residence.

Our team of experienced Realtors are available to answer any of your questions about the real estate market and your specific circumstances. We look forward to working with you.

Mid-Year 2017

Exceptional luxury Condo with an amazing water view. MLS# 4647794
Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$270,000 (+2.66%)$302,852 (+2.24%)954 (-6.29%)1827 (-5.87%)104 (0%)
Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$230,000 (+3.84%)$259,399 (+7.78%)313 (-5.72%)416 (-7.96%)100 (+20.48%)

The Mid-Year point is an important milestone for real estate trends.  We are in the midst of the traditional “height of the market” – when sellers opt to list their homes and buyers search in what historically would have been peak inventory levels of the Spring.  Closings on real estate sales surge in June, July and August in between the school year, vacations, new household formation and other life events that typically drive the market.  Our Mid- Year report will recap the inventory and sales of property during the 1st six months – and provide a snapshot of trends we may see in the Fall of 2017.

2017 has seen consistent buyer interest, however, the decline in available homes for sale has limited sales.

Units sold decreased during the first half of 2017 over the same period in 2016 while the sales are flat compared to the same period in 2015.
Over the past 3 years the number of single family homes available for sale during the 2nd quarter of the year (typically the height of the real estate season in Northwest VT) has declined from 2906 to 2206 – a 24% decline or 700 units less– while homes going “under contract” during the same period have increased by 151 units or 29% during the same period. This has shifted the market into the sellers’ favor especially in the sweet spot – the mid-priced range of $200,000- $400,000. One reason for this trend may be that sellers are living in their homes longer. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median tenure for sellers has increased to 10 years from a historical median of 5 to 7 years.

Newly listed, well-priced properties in good condition are selling quickly as savvy buyers search online and receive regular updates from their agents – ready to jump when the right property comes on the market. In some towns, the shortage of new listings coupled with buyer demand resulted in the absorption of listed properties that have been on the market for quite some time.

While both the median and average sold prices in single family and condos are showing increases, single family home prices appear to be more stable than the increases demonstrated in condos. In general, the increase in the average sold price of condos is a result of new construction projects at prices above the average and product mix versus appreciation of existing inventory.

In a recent Burlington Free Press article by Art Woolf, he noted that while Vermont’s population has declined slightly since the 2010 census – “Addison, Chittenden, and Franklin Counties have experienced growth over that period.” He further goes on to note that the fastest growing towns (by population) “are, in general, north of Burlington with easy access to I-89.” Our Market Reports over the past 2 years have reflected that trend as buyers searched outside of the Burlington area for more inventory and affordable home prices.

Land sales have stabilized after increased sales in 2016 as homeowners searched for alternatives while inventory was low. Many buyers have decided to “right size” their living accommodations with energy efficient, low maintenance newly built homes rather than purchase existing, older inventory that may need extensive renovations or are no longer meeting current needs or desires.

Mortgage rates are still historically low after a climb in late 2016 and some volatility during the first few months of 2017. Most predictions are that rates will remain steady for the remainder of the year. Any change to mortgage rates will affect buying power when affordability remains an issue. For example, an increase of .5% (one-half percent) in interest rate may reduce purchasing power approximately 5%. So, even though prices are rising slightly and inventory is limited, buyers who are serious about realizing their goal of homeownership this year should be ready to make an offer quickly – with the advice of their agent.

As always, it remains that both sellers and buyers need to reflect on their personal situation. We look forward to working with you to identify your next move.

First Quarter 2017

This gorgeous 3 bedroom, 3 bath Townhome overlooks the Vermont National golf course. MLS# 4618773

Single Family
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$249,500 (+3.2%)$282,469 (+1.6%)350 (-10%)652 (-19%)110 (-6%)

Condo
Median Sale Price:Average Sale Price:Units Sold:Newly Listed:Days on Market:
$247,650 (+20.8%)$280,063 (+21.2%)120 (-5.5%)159 (-5.9%)117 (+30%)

Historically the first three months of the year represent the slowest period for real estate sales in Northwest Vermont.  As the landscape changes with the arrival of spring and summer, so might real estate trends as more sellers and buyers enter the market.  Stronger-than-normal sales in the 1st quarter of 2016 coupled with tight inventory continuing into 2017 have resulted in a decline in year-over-year sales for the first quarter of 2017.

Tight inventory levels still continue to put pressure on the real estate market in Northwest Vermont. In the first quarter, fewer homeowners have chosen to put their homes on the market. Buyers may have fewer choices, especially in the sweet spot of housing – the mid-priced range of $200,000- $400,000. In addition, the National Association of Realtors reports the median tenure for sellers living in their home has increased to 10 years from a historical median of 5 to 7 years.

Over the past 3 years the number of single-family homes available for sale during the first 3 months of the year has declined from 2256 to 1680 – a 26% decline – while closed sales have increased 15% during the same period. The results are homes being on the market for fewer days and, in many cases, multiple offers driving the prices up with both the median and average prices showing increases during the first quarter. Our Realtors advise buyers to be well prepared to make strong offers, with their financing in order. In some circumstances, Agents are advising their buyers to look at homes priced lower than their threshold in the event of a multiple offer situation. In a fast-paced market, Sellers need the expertise of their Agent to help them navigate the incredibly complicated process of lining up a contract for a purchase as well as the contract for a sale of their current home.

While both the median and average sold prices are showing increases, single-family home prices appear to be more stable than the healthy increases demonstrated in the sold prices of condos. In general, the increase in prices of condos comes from new construction projects that have come on the market versus the appreciation of existing inventory.

Cities, towns, and developers have increased density in their planning and zoning strategies in order to preserve open green spaces. These Planned Unit Developments (PUDs), including condos and single-family homes, are becoming more popular as homeowners look to “right size” their lifestyle with housing options that provide ease of maintenance and, in some cases, affordability. New construction can be more energy efficient and many new communities offer amenities such as community gardens, walking trails, parks, and proximity to conveniences.

Mortgage rates are being watched closely. After a climb in late 2016 and some volatility during the first 2 months of 2017 – many predictions are that the rates will remain steady for the remainder of the year. Changes to mortgage rates can affect buying power when affordability remains an issue. For example, an increase of .5% (one-half percent) in interest rate may reduce purchasing power by 4-5%. So, even though prices are rising slightly and inventory is limited, buyers who are serious about realizing their goal of homeownership this year should be ready to make an offer sooner – with the advice of their Agent.

As always, it remains that both sellers and buyers need to reflect on their personal situation. Utilizing the local knowledge within this report and the advice of your Agent – you can make an informed decision about your next move.