The Grand Isle real estate market saw a significant decline of approximately 56.5% in new listings for all types of homes in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the same period last year. This limited the inventory available for buyers and contributed to an overall decline in sales volume.
Despite the limited inventory, the median sales price for all types of homes in Grand Isle increased by approximately 12.0% year-over-year, indicating continued strong demand in this segment of the market.
The Grand Isle real estate market also saw a decline in days on the market for all types of homes, with the average number of days on market dropping to just 19 days in the first quarter of 2023. This suggests that homes are selling quickly in this area, potentially due to the high demand and limited inventory
This outcome may primarily reflect the seasonality, as Grand Isle County’s real estate market is heavily influenced by sales of lakefront properties. Notably, the county did not disclose any condominium sales during the period of January through March
The first quarter of 2023 was challenging for the single-family home market in Washington County, with a significant decline of around 45% in sales volume compared to the same period last year. Additionally, new listings for single-family homes in the county dropped by approximately 26% year-over-year, contributing to the limited inventory and increased competition among buyers.
Despite the challenges faced by the single-family home market, the median sold price for single-family homes in Washington County increased by approximately 23% compared to the first quarter of 2022, indicating that demand remains strong in this segment of the market.
The condo market in Washington County was more stable, with flat sales volume but a significant increase of around 52% in the median sold price for condos compared to the first quarter of 2022. However, the number of new listings for condos dropped by approximately 21% year-over-year, indicating that inventory remains limited in this segment of the market as well.
Lamoille County‘s single-family home market saw a decline in both sales volume and new listings in the first quarter of 2023, with a drop of approximately 31% and 21%, respectively, compared to the same period last year.
Despite the lower sales volume and limited inventory, the median sold price for single-family homes in the county increased by approximately 14.7% year-over-year, indicating continued strong demand in this segment of the market.
The condo market in Lamoille County fared better, with a median price increase of around 26% compared to the first quarter of 2022, and an increase in both sales volume (27.7%) and new listings (23%) for condos. This suggests that the condo market may be a more attractive option for buyers in this area, given the limited inventory for single-family homes.
The first quarter of 2023 saw a decline of approximately 27% in closed sales for single-family homes in Franklin County, compared to the same period last year. Additionally, new listings for single-family homes in the county dropped by around 12% year-over-year, contributing to the limited inventory and increased competition among buyers. Days on the market for all single-family homes decreased to just 47 days during this period, suggesting that the market is moving quickly and homes are selling at a relatively fast pace.
Despite the challenges faced by the single-family home market in Franklin County, the median sold price for homes increased by around 8% compared to the first quarter of 2022, demonstrating that demand remains strong in this segment of the market.
Fairfax, St. Albans Town, and Swanton were the towns in Franklin County with the highest number of sales in the first quarter of 2023, indicating that these areas remain attractive to buyers.
The first quarter of 2023 was challenging for the housing market in Addison County, Vermont. The county saw a significant drop in the number of new listings, with a decline of around 33% compared to the same period last year. This limited the options available to potential buyers and contributed to an overall decline in sales. In fact, the number of homes sold in the county dropped by approximately 11% year-over-year. The median sold price for homes in Addison County also decreased by around 2% compared to the first quarter of 2022. This is not a reflection of a drop in home values, but more a change in the mix and limited number of properties that closed during this period. Despite these declines, Addison County remains an attractive area for homebuyers due to its scenic countryside and vibrant communities. It will be interesting to see how the market evolves throughout the rest of the year and whether the shortage of available inventory will continue to be a challenge for both buyers and sellers alike.
The housing market in Addison County, Vermont, experienced a challenging first quarter in 2023, with a significant drop of approximately 33% in new listings compared to the same period last year. This limited the options available to potential buyers and contributed to an overall decline of around 11% in sales volume.
Despite the challenges faced by the housing market in Addison County, the median sold price for homes only decreased by around 2% compared to the first quarter of 2022, suggesting that demand remains strong in this segment of the market.
With limited inventory and fewer options available, it is likely that buyers will continue to face increased competition for available properties, increased prices and bidding wars in many cases. However, the market remains attractive to buyers looking for scenic countryside and vibrant communities, and it will be interesting to see how the market evolves throughout the rest of the year.
In Chittenden County, one of the most populous areas in northwest Vermont, the first quarter of 2023 saw a slight decrease in closed sales for single-family homes, with a decline of around 7.5% compared to the same period last year. This is due to the shortage of available inventory, as the number of new listings for single-family homes in the county dropped by approximately 24% year-over-year. This lack of inventory has led to increased competition among buyers, leading to higher prices for available properties. Despite these challenges, the real estate market in Chittenden County remains strong, with many buyers still looking to purchase homes in this desirable area. The demand for homes in good condition, priced in the $450,000 – $650,000 range seem to be the sweet spot, although most price points are moving quickly. Despite interest rates being significantly higher than the same time last year, we are predicting increased activity in the coming months.
Chittenden County’s single-family home sales decreased by approximately 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the same period last year.
However, the median price for single-family homes in the county increased by around 14.4% year-over-year, indicating continued strong demand despite the lower sales volume.
The number of new listings for single-family homes in Chittenden County dropped by approximately 24% compared to the first quarter of 2022, contributing to the limited inventory.
The condo market in Chittenden County also saw a decline in sales volume, with a drop of around 32% compared to the same period last year. However, the median price for condos increased by around 9%, indicating that demand remains strong in this segment of the market.
In Milton, a town located in Chittenden County, closed sales of single-family homes increased by an impressive 56% compared to the first quarter of 2022, outpacing the county-wide trend.
As we review the real estate market results for 2022 and try to predict the market trends for 2023, one thing remains true – real estate is local. We will attempt to cut through the clutter and the sensational headlines to bring you a local and relevant perspective on real estate in northwest Vermont including Chittenden, Addison, Franklin and Grand Isle Counties.
Single-Family January-December 2022
Median Sale Price:
Average Sale Price:
Units Sold:
Newly Listed:
Days on Market:
$429,900 +11.8%
$501,166 +13.7%
2,125 -20.3%
2,371 -16.8%
25 -34.2%
Condo January-December 2022
Median Sale Price:
Average Sale Price:
Units Sold:
Newly Listed:
Days on Market:
$340,000 +23.6%
$384,461 +21.2%
706 -5.9%
700 -12.9%
21 -27.6%
Multi-Family January-December 2022
Median Sale Price:
Average Sale Price:
Units Sold:
Newly Listed:
Days on Market:
$490,000 +14.0%
$510,618 -5.4%
183 -25%
204 -32.9%
54 -8.5%
Land January-December 2022
Median Sale Price:
Average Sale Price:
Units Sold:
Newly Listed:
Days on Market:
$138,500 +32.2%
$210,407 +23.1%
234 -27.3%
322 -14.1%
154 -35%
In summing up 2022, the story of the year was mortgage interest rates. Mortgage rates ended 2021 and opened 2022 just below 3% on a 30-year fixed rate, conventional loan. By mid-year, rates doubled, eclipsing 7.0%. By December, they had settled at 5.875% to the low 6% range. Inflation was the biggest driver of the rate increases as the Federal Reserve took action and began hiking the Fed Funds rate. Investors are starting to breathe a sigh of relief that the worst inflation may be behind us, but with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) still higher than the Fed prefers, mortgage rates may stay in the high 5% to low 6% range through most of 2023, with a modest adjustment not expected until Q4 of 2023.
What does that mean for buyers interested in purchasing a home? When you find a home that you like, buy it! Interest rates will likely never return to the 3% range we have benefited from over the past few years. The median sale price of homes has been increasing and will continue to do so in 2023 (although not at the rate of the past 3 years). And, inventory remains limited. The saying we keep hearing is “Marry the home, date the rate!” Many buyers are now considering adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to keep their payments a bit lower in the short term. If you commit to a home, you will have the opportunity to refinance if and when mortgage interest rates go down.
The biggest factor impacting the real estate market both locally and nationally is the deficit of inventory. Nationally, this deficit is estimated to be 3.8 million homes. Locally, the Vermont Futures Project has estimated the immediate deficit to be 5000 homes; although this may be underestimating the problem. We are not digging our way out of the problem as we continue to “under build.” New construction plays a critical role; however, it is not meeting demand for a variety of reasons including labor shortages, construction costs, and land development costs. In northwest Vermont, there were double digit declines in the number of closed sales across all property types (residential, multi family, and land) in 2022. These declines do not reflect consumer demand but are a direct result of the lack of properties available for sale. In the past 2 years, the number of single-family homes and condos for sale monthly, has dropped 28%.
During December of 2022, there were only 384 properties available across northwest Vermont – compared to 659 in December of 2020.At the peak of the traditional 2022 real estate season, there were only 694 residential properties for sale with 330 going Under Contract. This calculates to only 2 months’ supply of inventory on the market – continuing a strong seller’s market. A balanced market (not a seller’s nor buyer’s market) would have approximately 4-6 months’ supply of inventory for sale. The number of homes for sale won’t increase significantly in 2023 as many homeowners do not want to lose their current low mortgage rate. Sellers will continue to move for life transitions such as career changes, family status changes, or aging out of a home.
In 2023, sellers should adjust their expectations. With higher interest rates, there still are buyers out there but not as many as 2021 and early 2022. Sellers will still reap the benefits of strong equity positions in their homes. Offers may come with inspection and financing contingencies. Understanding the current market conditions affecting their home, sellers will benefit from working with an experienced Agent who can guide them to closing with the best terms for them.
A stable and uneventful market is what we need over the next few years. Experts are predicting modest price growth in 2023. In northwest Vermont, we estimate a 3 – 5% increase in prices depending on the market segment. Properties priced below $600,000 and properties in move-in condition will continue to be in strong demand. The shock of the recent interest rate increases will give way to acceptance by buyers.
Millennials and Gen Z view real estate to be a means to build wealth as well as contribute to their quality of life. A recent Chase Home Lending survey found that 2 in 5 first time home buyers were living with family in order to save for a home. 58% of those surveyed think they will be ready to buy in the next 12 months. Indeed, home ownership continues to be the American dream.
The demand for homes in Chittenden County remained strong throughout 2022, with a slight slow down during the second half of the year. With limited inventory – a decline of 17% for single family homes and 7% for condos – median sale prices rose substantially.
Less units sold in 2022 is not a reflection of the number of buyers participating in the market. Many purchasers faced multiple offers, needing to exercise patience while working closely with their REALTOR to close on a home that met their needs. The median sale price of a single-family home has risen 43% since 2019. Homeowners have built equity, while keeping the largest portion of their living expenses – their mortgage – stable. For this reason, buyers should remain in the market. The opportunity to build wealth, manage your housing expenses, and enjoy the many benefits of homeownership simply do not exist as a renter.
The median sale price of homes in Addison County continued its multi-year surge led by towns like Ferrisburgh, Vergennes, and Bristol. Despite reaching a record high median sale price of $389,000 for a single-family home, the county is still more affordable than nearby Chittenden County. With declining inventory of homes for sale, well prepared buyers moved quickly to purchase a property when they found one, resulting in a list to contract of only 32 days on the market. Addison County offers the quintessential Vermont life experience of farm to table dining options, art galleries, and diversified employment opportunities – all with easy access to Lake Champlain and the mountains.
The Franklin County market is trending similarly to other counties in northwest Vermont. A decline in the number of newly listed properties resulted in a nearly 18% decline in the number of properties sold. Again, Buyer demand was strong with properties remaining on the market for only 32 days on average; down 29% from 2021. The median price of a single-family home has increased by 41% since 2019. Despite this rise, homes in Franklin County remain the most affordable in the region.